mairob’s blog

As a swing voter (fiscally Conservative, socially Liberal) and media junkie sitting on the fence here in the New York Metro area, I realize that I have yet to be exposed to any of your political advertising.  I know it's out there.  I've been hearing on the radio how the both of you have gone negative and all about the 10's of millions of dollars being spent on your campaign... but I've yet to see on TV or hear on the radio one political ad from either of you.

Depending upon whose weekly polls you believe - Sen. Obama is ahead in the polls anywhere from 3 - 9 percentage points.  With the Democratic convention coming up August 25th-28th, the coverage of America's love affair with Sen. Obama will rival Woodstock. Three full days of wall to wall Obama in the newspapers, on TV and on the web.  The gap in the polls will widen considerably. 

Using history as a guide, the bounce in the polls will be dramatic.  When the convention is over and they’re sweeping up the last bits of confetti in Denver, expect upwards of an additional 5-10 percentage point increase in the polls.  It’s a fait accompli as evidenced by the past:

·         In 1984, after the Democratic Convention, Walter Mondale closed from 19% behind in the polls to within 2 points of Ronald Reagan

·         In 1992, 60% of those polled said the Democratic Convention pushed them over the fence to vote the Democratic ticket (Clinton)

·         In 2000, The Democratic Convention catapulted VP Gore 16 percentage points - to a 1 point lead over President Bush

·         In 2004, President Bush went from a statistical dead heat, 47-46, to a 52-43 lead over John Kerry after the Republican Convention

Here’s how the McCain camp can thwart the convention bounce.

They need to do two things.

·         Make Sen. Obama a less acceptable candidate in the eyes of the fence sitters - the somewhat socially liberal but fiscally conservative voting bloc.

·         Secondly they need to mobilize the voters within their party, giving them ammunition, via talking points, so that influencers can have intelligent effective conversations with friends, families and associates.   

How to do this effectively and efficiently?  By leveraging AM Talk Radio – probably the only place you won’t see or hear much about the splendor of the coming Democratic love fest.

Take Rush Limbaugh for example.  During any given 15 minutes of the show he has more listeners then the combined circulation of USA Today, The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times…   These 4.5 million listeners aren’t stumbling on Rush, they are there for a very specific reason.  For a very minimal investment, advertising on Rush will put Sen. McCain’s talking points front and center with politically active listeners thirsty for an opinion.  

If they develped a :30 or :60 second campaign with messaging that will mobilize conservatives, influence the politically influential (word of mouth) and persuade Middle Of The Roaders that Sen Obama is the less acceptable candidate, McCain's strategy team should be able to minimize the upcoming convention bounce everyone is anticipating. 

As a product of New York by way of Dixie, I was taught that discussing Religion and Politics with friends is taboo.

On a recent business trip to DC, I was struck by how open, honest and passionate Washingtonians are when discussing politics.  Everyone from cab drivers to heads of ad agencies would engage me (and ultimately dismiss my points of view!)  like we New Yorkers talk Mets and Yankees with each other.

It occurred to me that the boundaries of this openness pushes past DC to a national level prior to every national election cycle – giving marketers a great opportunity to leverage massive increases in Talk Radio listenership.

For example, prior to both the 2000 and 2004 elections, The Rush Limbaugh program’s audience spiked dramatically to 4.5 million listeners during any given 15 minutes of the program (AQH).  For perspective this is more listeners than the daily COMBINED circulation of USA Today, The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times!   In an era of ever expanding news media choices, an (albeit temporary) 25 - 40% audience spike, in radio of all places, is nothing short of astounding.

This is not an anomoly, it is a phenomenon.  A 2007 study from the Pew Research Center who polled “regular” audiences to find out where they consume their hard news syncs up with these recurring four year listenership spikes.  When asked, more of these "regular folks" turned to Rush Limbaugh (58%) for hard news over every other TV news program including Sunday Morning News (52%) and all three of the Cable News Networks,  MSNBC (45%), Fox News (43%) and CNN (42%).

What this illustrates is that in this age of talking heads, scrolling tickers, split screen news and information overload, news, is news, is news and consumers are actively seeking intelligent opinions on current events.  They're smart enough to sense bias in these “neutral” media outlets while talk radio hosts like Limbaugh and others are offering up authentic, honest opinions of the day’s events.  Whether you agree or disagree with these hosts' political bent, there is no chicanery, listeners know and respect that the opinions they are hearing - right, left or center - are genuine, consistent and are given an incredible amount of intellectual thought.

For savvy marketers looking to leverage the current audience spikes in talk tadio, there couldn’t be a more perfect time to invest media dollars in these programs.  Particularly those advertisers looking to capitalize during the crucial back to school and pre-holiday shopping seasons.

Judging from Obama’s recent 12 minute on-air interview with comedian and national radio morning show host Steve Harvey, the Obama camp is covering all the bases.  

Obama’s appearance on Steve Harvey’s morning show was heard by 850,000 people,  predominately African American, and on the #1 stations in the biggest markets in South Carolina, a key early primary. 

In fact, The Steve Harvey Morning Show, according to the Winter Arbitron, is the #1 morning show not only in the  Charlestons and Columbia, South Carolinas – the show is #1in the Top 50 markets against almost every AA demographic.

Strategically, Perfect

When you dig a little deeper, you realize what a brilliant strategic move this was for Senator Obama. When it comes to radio, media consumption habits of African Americans are vastly different.  In fact, radio comes out as one of the strongest, most credible methods to sway opinion in the Black community.

A recent RAEL study on consumer receptivity towards different media detailed that African Americans were describing radio ads as more “honest” and “fun” then the other major media (Yes, advertising and honest in the same sentence!). In fact, radio advertising comes out on top in most of the qualitative measurements against the typical Black listener.

Why It Was Effective

Radio is considered a one to one broadcast medium. It’s the difference between Sen. Obama riding in the passenger seat of 850,000 different cars simultaneously, versus Sen. Obama reaching 850,000 people with a microphone in a town square.  Obama was speaking “directly to me”, not “directly at us”.

Research also shows African Americans have a deeper, more personal connection - listening an average of 3 more hours per week then the general market.  That’s a significant amount of extra time.  The music, the personalities, the lifestyles featured on Urban and Urban Adult Contemporary formatted radio stations are clearly striking a chord with listeners.  

Issue advertisers targeting Black Americans would be very wise follow Sen. Obama’s lead and start integrating their messages into influential personality programming.

Who are the influencers? 

Jesse Jackson has a weekly Sunday morning program that reaches 210,000 people any given 15 minutes and talks about issues of the day while listeners are on their way to church.  Bishop T.D. Jakes “Empowering Moments” radio short form show reaches 700,000 people with each broadcast with positive empowering messages each week. 

It’s not a huge list of influencers, but the audiences are very big, the personalities are very influential and the media is very inexpensive.  It was a brilliant strategy for Obama’s team to pay a visit to Steve Harvey’s show – before the other candidates try to give the token “me too” visit a week prior to the primaries.   If I were an advisor to Senator Obama, I’d recommend that he try to visit bi-monthly and supplement these visits with a weekly media campaign to keep the association with Steve Harvey front and center with voters.

Mini Town Squares

To go back to the Town Square metaphor - it’s clear that it no longer exists. Media has splintered and has become more granular to super serve very distinct demographics.  However, each of the national radio programs mentioned above is a mini “town square” with millions of weekly like-minded listeners getting the information, entertainment, etc… they need, tailored for their lifestyle, spoken in their colloquial language usually from a radio host who is a trusted friend in a one-one experience that can’t be duplicated elsewhere. 

In listening to these shows you can’t help to think that these hosts are influencing decision making on a daily basis.

2/5 Super Early Primary

What’s going to happen on the 2/5 Primary when Black Democrats get out the vote in major States like NY, Illinois, Michigan, and California where there is a huge concentration of African Americans?  Your guess is as good as mine.  But with three very strong Democratic candidates for African Americans to choose from – all running neck and neck, it’s clear to me that the Black vote is going to play a crucial role in determining our next Democratic nominee, and next likely President.

It will be interesting to hear if each candidate comes to the same conclusion as the Obama camp and begins to utilize Network Radio’s leading opinion leaders to reach and influence the Black vote now through February.

By:  Robert Drucker

In every election cycle, issue advertisers budget a portion of their advertising dollars for national radio campaigns.  Today, network radio has the advantage of serving their needs with utmost efficiency and effectiveness with copy splitting and syndicated programming.

While some elections are local and regional in nature, through network radio’s copy splitting technology, issue advertisers like the ACLU, National Right To Life, NAACP, National Organization for Women, etc., can influence local election races with customized messages.  In markets where a local message isn’t warranted, a national education or donation request message can be broadcast.  

For instance, the NAACP may be interested in reaching African American voters across the country.  They may have an overall campaign to encourage their constituents to get out and vote; however, they may also want to promote a specific candidate in Camden, South Carolina, and/or a local piece of legislation in Enid, Oklahoma.  By copy splitting local messages in key markets, and running them during targeted syndicated programs like Premiere’s “The Steve Harvey Morning Show” "Keep Hope Alive With Jesse Jackson" or “Empowering Moment with T.D. Jakes,”  the organization is able to systematically and effectively reach their target audience.

Copy splitting in network radio also works for advertisers of everyday goods and services too. 

Key benefits for buyers/advertisers include targeted execution, efficiencies of money and time, one vendor, one negotiation, and one invoice.

For example, since Premiere Radio’s “The Rush Limbaugh Show” has 100% U.S. coverage and nearly 600 radio stations, any market a buyer needs to split out with a custom message is covered.  The unit cost breaks down to just $15-$30 per station, depending on whether it’s a :30 or :60.  In one phone call, a buyer negotiates

essentially a 600 station buy while splitting out key markets and only receives one invoice.

CONSERVATIVE ISSUE ADVERTISER CASE STUDY - 2004 Election

A case study from the 2004 Presidential Election demonstrates how one issue advertiser utilized both Premiere’s Rush Limbaugh and Dr. Laura radio programs as the cornerstone of their entire election effort.

Situation

• Stretch a limited budget with short lead time to help elect conservative politicians in close local political races in 36 swing markets.

• Counter voter apathy in the 2004 Presidential election and remind conservatives that if the agenda of this issue advertiser was important to them personally, they need to vote to re-elect President Bush and their local Republican.

Solution

Utilizing the national networks of Rush Limbaugh and Dr. Laura, this PAC disseminated various customized messages in a nurturing environment to the largest contingent of mobilized conservatives in any national medium.

Through Premiere’s copy splitting technology, they were able to send 36 unique messages to key swing markets and one national message to the rest of the country.

Example of how it worked:

In South Carolina, the PAC’s “Bush/Jim DeMint” message broadcast across 12 Rush Limbaugh affiliates and five Dr. Laura affiliates, covering the entire state of South Carolina.

Meanwhile at the exact same time in Oklahoma, the “Bush/Tom Coburn” PAC message ran on five Rush Limbaugh affiliates and three Dr. Laura affiliates in the state, completely blanketing every key market.

Outside of the 36 copy splits, a national generic message broadcast to the rest of the country.

Result

In this case, copy splitting allowed the issue advertiser to deliver messages with pinpoint accuracy to a mobilized contingent of politically active conservatives in a nurturing environment.  In order to run messages in key dayparts outside of these syndicated programs, the buyer also executed a local buy.

With more impressions delivered than Fox News TV, USA Today, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, at a fraction of the cost, it’s clear why “The Rush Limbaugh Show” was the foundation of this media buy.   

This same strategy can be duplicated in national radio programs that target specific voters.  For instance, there are great opportunities to reach women through nationally syndicated programs like “Delilah,” and  “Wake Up with Whoopi Goldberg.”  However, between back-to-school, the election cycle, and holidays, inventory during these crucial months book fast.  Advertisers should take advantage of what network radio has to offer.